Novel Machine Learning Tools to Enhance Mortality Prediction

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Abstract

The tremendous growth of clinical data, both in healthcare institutions and personal devices, has led to the development of smart systems that can analyze this data to understand patterns and make predictions. The goal of understanding this data is to help make informed clinical decisions that improve health outcomes and save costs. Patient data has been leveraged by these intelligent systems to notice features that are important and actionable in improving clinical outcomes. One of the key clinical outcomes especially for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is mortality. Mortality prediction for ICU patients continues to be an important challenge in clinical care because of the complex nature of patients and data involved. With accurate mortality prediction, patients can be classified into different risk categories to ensure proper care is given therefore allowing for the best possible clinical outcomes and cost savings. Several mortality prediction models have been developed some of which use Machine Learning techniques. However, the existing mortality prediction tools are not generalizable to entire patient populations and are not designed to predict a diverse range of clinical endpoints. Additionally, these mortality prediction models are not personalized to the patients' unique and changing clinical profile. In this dissertations, we present a mortality prediction approach that addresses these challenges thereby allowing for generalizable, extensible, and personalized mortality prediction modeling. We achieve this goal while improving prediction accuracy over existing state of the art tools. We present a novel methodology of combining clinical biomarker data, patient similarity features, and existing prediction tool output to predict ICU mortality. We examine patient comorbidities to discover their impact on mortality and use them as attributes in our modeling. We capture biomarker features as used in a severity scoring tool as in integral input in our modeling. In so doing, we have designed an approach to clinical prediction that uses matured machine learning techniques to combine patient similarity measures and patient biomarker information to improve prediction accuracy. Our approach builds on previous work that has been done in clinical outcome prediction and lays a strong foundation for continued innovation.

Novel Machine Learning Tools to Enhance Mortality Prediction

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Abstract