On Borrowed Time: The Past, Present, and Future of Virginia’s Barrier Islands under Differing Sea-Level Rise Scenarios

dc.contributor.authorHamilton, Stuart E.
dc.contributor.authorTalbot, John
dc.contributor.authorFlint, Carl
dc.contributor.authorPhipps-Dickerson, Adam
dc.contributor.authorWilson, Tyler
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Mychael
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-27T14:52:18Z
dc.date.available2017-10-27T14:52:18Z
dc.description.abstractVirginia’s barrier islands constitute one of the most undeveloped shorelines of the eastern US. Aside from a few islands in the north, the islands are uninhabited and managed for conservation. These islands play important environmental, cultural, and economic roles along Virginia’s Eastern Shore. Climate change driven sea-level rise is already having a major impact on these islands and threatens their existence. We utilize transect analysis across each of the barrier islands to depict the shoreline change trends annually from 1850 to 2010. We then utilize time series forecasting and panel modeling to estimate future island shorelines up to and including a best estimate 2099 CE shoreline. Results indicate that across almost all the islands, the shoreline retreat rate has been increasing over time. Additionally, we find that year 2100 CE sea-level rise scenarios are likely to accelerate the shoreline retreat occurring on these islands and may erase many of them all together. We find that the northern islands of Wallops and North Assateague will remain generally stable whereas many of the remaining islands will likely experience rapid shoreline retreat under future sea-level rise scenarios.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://arxiv.org/abs/1710.01685v2en_US
dc.format.extent27 pagesen_US
dc.genreresearch (documents)en_US
dc.genrepapers (documents)en_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/M23X83N0P
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/7388
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtSalisbury UniversityEnglish
dc.subjectVirginia’s Barrier Islandsen_US
dc.subjectSea-Level Riseen_US
dc.subjectShoreline Changeen_US
dc.subjectClimate Changeen_US
dc.titleOn Borrowed Time: The Past, Present, and Future of Virginia’s Barrier Islands under Differing Sea-Level Rise Scenariosen_US
dc.typeTexten_US

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