A macroeconomic analysis of energy subsidies in a small open economy
Links to Fileshttps://ideas.repec.org/p/tow/wpaper/2013-02.html
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Type of Workapplication/pdf
DepartmentTowson University. Department of Economics
Citation of Original PublicationGerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung, 2013. "A Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Subsidies in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2013-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2014.
Fiscal policy reform
Public sector reform
We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment. We calculate the new steady states, transition paths to the new steady state and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains. Our main results for a 15 percent cut in energy subsidies are: (i) Steady state GDP drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production. (ii) Steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments. (iii) Welfare can rise by as much as 0.6 percent in consumption equivalent terms. (iv) The largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment.