Applying chemical reaction transition theory to predict the latent transmission dynamics of coronavirus outbreak in China

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2020.02.22.20026815v1.full.pdf (269.21 KB)

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20026815v1.article-info

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https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.22.20026815
 http://hdl.handle.net/11603/17643

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UMBC Chemical, Biochemical & Environmental Engineering Department
UMBC Faculty Collection

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2020-02-25

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journal articles preprints
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Xu, Peng; Applying chemical reaction transition theory to predict the latent transmission dynamics of coronavirus outbreak in China (2020); https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20026815v1.article-info

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Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-ND 4.0)

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Abstract

The recent outbreak of the Covid-19 suggests a rather long latent phase that precludes public health officials to predict the pandemic transmission on time. Here we apply mass action laws and chemical transition theory to propose a kinetic model that accounts for viral transmission dynamics at the latent phase. This model is useful for authorities to make early preventions and control measurements that stop the spread of a deadly new virus.