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dc.contributor.authorAquila, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorBaldwin, Colleen
dc.contributor.authorMukherjee, Nikita
dc.contributor.authorHackert, Eric
dc.contributor.authorLi, Feng
dc.contributor.authorMarshak, Jelena
dc.contributor.authorMolod, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorPawson, Steven
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7928-0775en_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-20T20:11:56Z
dc.date.available2023-01-20T20:11:56Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-26
dc.description.abstractA contemporary seasonal forecasting system is used to study the impacts of a volcanic sulfate injection into the stratosphere on the seasonal forecasts for surface temperatures, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and precipitation. The focus is a case study of the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines and the period from July 1991 to February 1992. Version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system is used in this study. GEOSS2S includes the GOddard Chemistry, Aerosols, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module, which allows to prognostically simulate aerosol distributions. GOCART is coupled to the radiation and cloud modules to include the impact of the eruption on forecasted radiation and precipitation. The coupled GEOS-S2S system was initialized in May 1991 with fields based on observations to produce ten-member 9-month forecasts with and without the volcanic sulfur injection. The results of these ensemble experiments demonstrate that including Mt. Pinatubo in seasonal forecasts would improve the forecasts of the 1991–1992 global mean temperature and precipitation but worsen the forecast of ENSO by strengthening of El Niño beyond what showed in observations. Most significant changes in the forecasts of temperatures and precipitation are limited to the tropics. The only land area where the inclusion of Pinatubo significantly lowered the forecasted precipitation is tropical Africa.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe GEOS-S2S model is developed via core funding to the GMAO from NASA's MAP program. Inclusion of aerosol modules is funded via GMAO core projects and the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model effort. Computing was performed on NASA's High-Performance Computing machines at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (Goddard Space Flight Center) and the NASA Computing Service (Ames Research Center).en_US
dc.description.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021JD034830en_US
dc.format.extent16 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2k6ib-vgs0
dc.identifier.citationAquila, V., Baldwin, C., Mukherjee, N., Hackert, E., Li, F., Marshak, J., et al. (2021). Impacts of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on surface temperatures and precipitation forecasts with the NASA GEOS subseasonal-to-seasonal system. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2021JD034830. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034830.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034830
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/26696
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAGUen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC GESTAR II Collection
dc.rightsThis work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.en_US
dc.rightsPublic Domain Mark 1.0*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/*
dc.titleImpacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Systemen_US
dc.typeTexten_US


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This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.