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dc.contributor.authorFleming, Eric L.
dc.contributor.authorLiang, Qing
dc.contributor.authorOman, Luke D.
dc.contributor.authorNewman, Paul A.
dc.contributor.authorLi, Feng
dc.contributor.authorHurwitz, Margaret M.
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7928-0775en_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-20T20:12:03Z
dc.date.available2023-01-20T20:12:03Z
dc.date.issued2021-04-09
dc.description.abstractTrichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC-11 emissions increased during 2014–2017 relative to 2008–2012. In this study, we use a chemistry-climate model to investigate the stratospheric impacts of potential CFC-11 emissions continuing into the future. As a sensitivity test, we use a high CFC-11 scenario in which the inferred 2013–2016 average emissions of 72.5 Gg/yr is sustained to year 2100. This increases equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine by 15% in 2100, relative to the WMO (2018) baseline scenario in which future emissions decay with a bank release rate of 6.4%/year. Consistent with recent studies, the resulting ozone response has a linear dependence on the accumulated CFC-11 emissions, yielding global and Antarctic spring total ozone sensitivity per 1,000 Gg of −0.37 and −3.9 DU, respectively, averaged over 2017–2100. The deepened ozone hole reduces UV heating, causing a colder Antarctic lower stratosphere in spring/early summer. Through thermal wind balance, this accelerates the circumpolar jet which in turn alters planetary and gravity wave propagation through the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, and modifies the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Age of air in the high scenario is slightly younger than the baseline in the lower stratosphere globally during 2090–2099, with a maximum change of −0.1 years. Coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations show that the resulting greenhouse gas impact of CFC-11 is small and not statistically significant throughout the troposphere and stratosphere.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions. This work was supported in part by NASA's Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program and NASA's Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Program. GEOSCCM model description, configuration, input parameters and forcing datasets, and associated references are provided in Section 2 of the main text.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020JD033656en_US
dc.format.extent17 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2vrf6-abyd
dc.identifier.citationFleming, E. L., Liang, Q., Oman, L. D., Newman, P. A., Li, F., & Hurwitz, M. M. (2021). Stratospheric impacts of continuing CFC-11 emissions simulated in a chemistry-climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033656. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033656.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033656
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/26697
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAGUen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC GESTAR II Collection
dc.rightsThis work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.en_US
dc.rightsPublic Domain Mark 1.0*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/*
dc.titleStratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry-Climate Modelen_US
dc.typeTexten_US


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This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.