Understanding the Role of 2019 Amazon Wildfires on Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Using Data Science Approaches

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9933-1170
 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0130-6135

Date

2023-06-22

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conference papers and proceedings
preprints
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Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of the black carbon (BC) aerosols generated during the 2019 extreme Amazon wildfire events on the sea ice extent over the Antarctic region. Random forest (RF), elastic net regression (EL), matrix profile (MPF), and causal discovery (CD) analysis have been employed on a suite of satellite measurements for this analysis. In 2019, a higher number of BC aerosol atmospheric rivers (AAR) that transport the aerosols from the Amazon region arrived in the Antarctic region compared to 2018. It has been observed that between August 2019 and February 2020, SIE loss over the Antarctic region increased threefold (487 Gt) than the mean SIE loss (143 Gt per year) from 2002. The Weddell, Ross Sea (Ross), and Indian Ocean (IO) regions experienced higher loss in SIE during BC AAR days during that period, with the Weddell region topping the chart. Bell-Amundsen (BA) and the Pacific Ocean (PC) region were the least affected and showed the minimum and insignificantly different SIE loss as compared to the previous year. Our analysis shows that the ice surface over the Antarctic peninsula was darker in 2019. RF, CD, and EL show that the shortwave upward radiative flux or the reflected sunlight, temperature, longwave upward energy, or the emitted radiation from the earth are the most important factors that influence the SIE loss over the Weddell, Ross, and Indian Ocean regions. RF and EL analyses were unable to capture the influence of wind and precipitation on SIE over BA; however, CD analysis captures the relationship. MPF shows that the highest (lowest) number of discords were found over the Weddell (BA) region - confirming the largest (lowest) loss in SIE over there. MPF also finds a higher number of discords in SIE occurring over the Ross region between August 2019 and February 2020 than the previous year, thus can explain the higher SIE loss during the presence of BC AARs over there.