Analysis of Longitudinal Teenage Pregnancy Data of Mpunkunyoni, Kwazulu-Natal using Generalised Linear Mixed Model

Abstract

Teenage pregnancy is an alarming concern in South Africa, as it potentially contributes to the life-threatening disease, HIV, in the young population. Communities in poor villages are hit hard by this problem. Statistics South Africa reported that the total yearly cases of teenage pregnancy has reduced. This work investigated this yearly reduction using 2011-2015 pregnancy census data of female teenagers at Mpunkunyoni, KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. Apart from the census year effect, this paper accounted for the differences and similarities generated by female teenagers while correcting for the effects of their characteristics. The data were subjected to a generalized linear mixed model, and candidate parsimonious models were attained using the likelihood ratio test and a mixture of chi-squares while the model selection was carried out using the Akaike information criterion. There were no significant differences due to female teenagers while correcting for their age and census year effects. Although there was a tendency for teenage pregnancy risk to decrease over the years, this risk is higher for older teenagers.