Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest

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dc.contributor.authorWunderling, Nico
dc.contributor.authorStaal, Arie
dc.contributor.authorSakschewski, Boris
dc.contributor.authorHirota, Marina
dc.contributor.authorTuinenburg, Obbe A.
dc.contributor.authorDonges, Jonathan F.
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, H. M. J.
dc.contributor.authorWinkelmann, Ricarda
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-22T19:52:14Z
dc.date.available2022-08-22T19:52:14Z
dc.date.issued2022-08-02
dc.description.abstractTipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest–climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe are thankful to Kirsten Thonicke and Markus Drüke for fruitful discussions. This work has been carried out within the framework of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research’s FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene. N.W. and R.W. acknowledge the financial support of the International Research Training Group (IRTG) 1740/TRP 2015/50122-0 project funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). N.W. is grateful for a scholarship from the Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes. N.W., J.F.D., and R.W. are thankful for financial support by the Leibniz Association (project DominoES). N.W., A.S., and J.F.D. acknowledge support from the European Research Council Advanced Grant project ERA (ERC-2016-ADG-743080). A.S. acknowledges support from the Talent Program Grant VI.Veni.202.170 by the Dutch Research Council (Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, NWO). B.S. acknowledges funding from the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)-funded and Belmont Forum-funded project “CLIMAX: Climate services through knowledge co-production: A Euro-South American initiative for strengthening societal adaptation response to extreme events,” FKZ 01LP1610A. M.H. is supported by a grant from Instituto Serrapilheira/Serra-1709-18983. O.A.T. acknowledges funding from The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research Innovational Research Incentives Schemes Veni (016.171.019). J.F.D. is grateful for financial support from the Stordalen Foundation via the Planetary Boundary Research Network and the Earth League’s EarthDoc program; and the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF, project PIK Change, Grant 01LS2001A). H.J.M.B. was supported by Research Grants 2015/50122-0 and 2016/18866-2, FAPESP, and Grant 308682/2017-3, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq). We gratefully acknowledge the European Regional Development Fund, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, and the Land Brandenburg for supporting this project by providing resources on the high-performance computer system at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2120777119en_US
dc.format.extent11 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2rgrh-kwq5
dc.identifier.citationWunderling, Nico et al. "Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119, no. 32 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120777119en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120777119
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/25533
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherPNASen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Physics Department Collection
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.rightsThis item is likely protected under Title 17 of the U.S. Copyright Law. Unless on a Creative Commons license, for uses protected by Copyright Law, contact the copyright holder or the author.en_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)*
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectUMBC High Performance Computing Facility (HPCF)
dc.titleRecurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforesten_US
dc.typeTexten_US
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4027-1855en_US

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