Inflation expectations in India: learning from household tendency surveys

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dc.contributor.authorDas, Abhiman
dc.contributor.authorLahiri, Kajal
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Yongchen
dc.contributor.departmentTowson University. Department of Economicsen_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-31T16:48:21Z
dc.date.available2019-01-31T16:48:21Z
dc.date.issued2018-08
dc.description.abstractUsing a large household survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India since 2005, we estimate the dynamics of aggregate inflation expectations over a volatile inflation regime. A simple average of the quantitative responses produces biased estimates of the official inflation data. We therefore estimate expectations by quantifying the reported directional responses. For quantification, we use the Hierarchical Ordered Probit model, in addition to the balance statistic. We find that the quantified expectations from qualitative forecasts track the actual inflation rate better than the averages of the quantitative forecasts, highlighting the filtering role of qualitative tendency surveys. We also report estimates of disagreement among households. The proposed approach is particularly suitable in emerging economies where inflation tends to be high and volatile.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://ideas.repec.org/p/tow/wpaper/2018-03.htmlen_US
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.format.extent40 pagesen_US
dc.genreworking papersen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2xjov-kyhw
dc.identifier.citationAbhiman Das & Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2018. "Inflation Expectations in India: Learning from Household Tendency Surveys," Working Papers 2018-03, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2018.en_US
dc.identifier.otherJEL: C25
dc.identifier.otherJEL: D84
dc.identifier.otherJEL: E3
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/12675
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherTowson University. Department of Economicsen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtTowson University
dc.relation.ispartofseriesTowson University Department of Economics Working Paper Series;2018-03
dc.subjectHierarchical ordered probit modelen_US
dc.subjectQuantificationen_US
dc.subjectTendency surveysen_US
dc.subjectDisagreementsen_US
dc.subjectInflation (Finance) -- Indiaen_US
dc.titleInflation expectations in India: learning from household tendency surveysen_US
dc.typeTexten_US

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