Response of the Upper-Level Monsoon Anticyclones and Ozone to Abrupt CO₂ Changes

Abstract

The summer monsoon anticyclones are the dominant climatological features of the Northern Hemispheric (NH) summertime circulation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). However, the response of these anticyclones to the increased levels of E CO₂ remains highly uncertain, as does the impact on the distribution of UTLS ozone and other tracers. This study examines the response of the NH summertime monsoon anticyclones and UTLS ozone to the abrupt increase in E CO₂ forcing using output from a suite of coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model simulations. These models show an equatorward shift of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, a weakening of the North American summer monsoon anticyclone, and a stronger westerly flow penetrating deep into the tropics above the Pacific Ocean and North America. We use additional idealized experiments from atmosphere-only general circulation models with prescribed SSTs and sea ice concentration to isolate the direct atmospheric radiative effects from the indirect effect of SST warming on the UTLS monsoon anticyclones. Comparison between atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere experiments shows that SST warming is the principal mechanism producing UTLS monsoonal circulation changes. The 4*CO₂ experiments result in a significant reduction up to 40%–50% of the UTLS ozone in the northern tropics, which could have an impact on radiative balance near the surface.