An Economic Impact Assessment of the Use of Earth Observation Information in Flood Hazard Communication
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Bernknopf, Richard, Yusuke Kuwayama, Benjamin Zaitchik, Matthew Rodell, Augusto Getirana, Andrea Thorstensen, and Samiha Shahreen. “An Economic Impact Assessment of the Use of Earth Observation Information in Flood Hazard Communication,” July 30, 2025. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20250006450.
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This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.
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Abstract
Flood hazard forecasts are critical information to reduce the impacts of a disaster. Improved operational forecasts can lead to timelier decisions, which translates into more cost-effective pre-flood mitigation decisions. In this paper, we quantify this economic value of an improved forecast for two types of independent empirical adjustments to National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) adjusts the ESP to produce an operational seasonal river discharge forecast with forecaster intervention and complements the forecast with an experimental empirical soil moisture adjustment from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). In a retrospective case study, we apply the complementary NCFRC + GRACE forecast to increase the confidence in implementing flood mitigation earlier in flood hazard planning. Specifically, we focus on the reforecast of the 2011 spring season for the Sheyenne River in North Dakota and find that flood protection decisions in Valley City, ND could have been made 5 days earlier and mitigation costs could have been reduced by $1.7 million.