Connecting current and future dual AGN searches to LISA and PTA gravitational wave detections

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dc.contributor.authorChen, Nianyi
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Yihao
dc.contributor.authorDadiani, Ekaterine
dc.contributor.authorMatteo, Tiziana Di
dc.contributor.authorWang, Cici
dc.contributor.authorPalmese, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorShen, Yue
dc.contributor.authorLi, Junyao
dc.contributor.authorFoord, Adi
dc.contributor.authorBird, Simeon
dc.contributor.authorNi, Yueying
dc.contributor.authorYang, Yanhui
dc.contributor.authorCroft, Rupert
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-22T16:19:08Z
dc.date.issued2025-12-18
dc.description.abstractDual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark an observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing in galaxy mergers and are precursors to the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct DAGN catalogs matched to current (COSMOS-Web, DESI) and forthcoming (AXIS, Roman) searches. With realistic selection functions applied, ASTRID reproduces observed dual fractions, separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (< 5 kpc) duals that current surveys fail to capture, indicating that the apparent paucity of sub-kpc systems in COSMOS-Web is driven primarily by selection effects rather than a physical deficit. By following each simulated dual forward in time, we show that dual AGN are robust tracers of MBH mergers: ∼30–70% coalesce within ≲ 1 Gyr, and 20–60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by LISA. Duals accessible to AXIS and Roman are the progenitors of ∼ 10% of low-redshift LISA events and ∼ 30% of the PTA-band stochastic background. Massive green-valley galaxies with moderate-luminosity AGN, together with massive star-forming hosts containing bright quasars at z > 1, emerge as the most likely environments for imminent MBH binaries. These results provide a unified cosmological framework linking dual AGN demographics, MBH binary formation, and gravitational-wave emission, and they identify concrete, high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and GW searches in upcoming multi-messenger surveys.
dc.description.sponsorshipNC acknowledges support from the Schmidt Futures Fund and MPA Postdoctoral Fellowship. YZ and TDM acknowledge the support from the NASA FINESST grant NNH24ZDA001N. TDM acknowledges funding from NASA ATP 80NSSC20K0519, NSF PHY2020295, NASA ATP NNX17AK56G, and NASA ATP 80NSSC18K101. YN acknowledges support from the ITC Postdoctoral Fellowship. SB acknowledges funding from NASA ATP 80NSSC22K1897. TDM acknowledges support from NASA Theory grant 80NSSC22K072 and NASA ATP 80NSSC18K101. ASTRID was run on the Frontera facility at the Texas Advanced Computing Center. This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. 22-LPS22-0025. This research used data obtained with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). DESI construction and operations is managed by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High-Energy Physics, under Contract No. DE–AC02–05CH11231, and by the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science User Facility under the same contract. Additional support for DESI was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), Division of Astronomical Sciences under Contract No. AST-0950945 to the NSF’s National Optical-Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory; the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom; the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; the Heising-Simons Foundation; the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA); the National Council of Humanities, Science and Technology of Mexico (CONAHCYT); the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain (MICINN), and by the DESI Member Institutions: www.desi.lbl.gov/collaborating-institutions. The DESI collaboration is honored to be permitted to conduct scientific research on I’oligam Du’ag (Kitt Peak), a mountain with particular significance to the Tohono O’odham Nation. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, or any of the listed funding agencies.
dc.description.urihttp://arxiv.org/abs/2512.16844
dc.format.extent20 pages
dc.genrejournal articles
dc.genrepreprints
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2y4gh-jofl
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.16844
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/41548
dc.language.isoen
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Physics Department
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAstrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies
dc.titleConnecting current and future dual AGN searches to LISA and PTA gravitational wave detections
dc.typeText
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1616-1701

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