Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems

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dc.contributor.authorStan, Cristiana
dc.contributor.authorZheng, Cheng
dc.contributor.authorChang, Edmund Kar-Man
dc.contributor.authorDomeisen, Daniela I.V.
dc.contributor.authorGarfinkel, Chaim I.
dc.contributor.authorJenney, Andrea M.
dc.contributor.authorKim, Hyemi
dc.contributor.authorLim, Young-Kwon
dc.contributor.authorLin, Hai
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Chen
dc.contributor.authorVitart, Frederic
dc.contributor.authorWang, Jiabao
dc.contributor.authorYadav, Priyanka
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-18T15:20:07Z
dc.date.available2022-03-18T15:20:07Z
dc.date.issued2022-02-11
dc.description.abstractThis study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden Julian Oscillations and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe express special thanks to the World Meteorological Organization for fostering the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project and encouraging the activities undertaken by the MJO and Teleconnections Sub-project. Support for A. M. J. is from the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR's Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under award #NA18NWS4620043B. Wang was supported by NSF Grant AGS-1652289 and the California Department of Water Resources AR Program (Grant 4600013361). Chang was supported by the NOAA grant NA20OAR4590315. Kim was supported by NSF Grant AGS-1652289. Support from the Swiss National Science Foundation through projects PP00P2_170523 and PP00P2_198896 to P. Y. and D. D. is gratefully acknowledged. C. I. G. and C. Schwartz are supported by the ISF-NSFC joint research program (grant No.3259/19) and by the European Research Council starting grant under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant Agreement 677756).Stan was supported by NOAA grants NA20OAR4590316 and NA18NWS4680069.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-21-0130.1/BAMS-D-21-0130.1.xmlen_US
dc.format.extent44 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2bmlb-xbzw
dc.identifier.citationStan, Cristiana, Cheng Zheng, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Andrea M. Jenney, Hyemi Kim, Young-Kwon Lim, Hai Lin, Andrew Robertson, Chen Schwartz, Frederic Vitart, Jiabao Wang, and Priyanka Yadav. " Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (published online ahead of print 2022), accessed Feb 19, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0130.1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0130.1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/24405
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAMSen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC GESTAR II Collection
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.rights© Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this work, please contact permissions@ametsoc.org. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code §?107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (https://www.copyright.com). Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy).en_US
dc.rightsAccess To This Item Will Begin On 02-11-2023
dc.titleAdvances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systemsen_US
dc.typeTexten_US

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