Evaluation of climate model aerosol trends with ground-based observations over the last two decades - an AeroCom and CMIP6 analysis

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dc.contributor.authorMortier, Augustin
dc.contributor.authorGliss, Jonas
dc.contributor.authorSchulz, Michael
dc.contributor.authorAas, Wenche
dc.contributor.authorAndrews, Elisabeth
dc.contributor.authorBian, Huisheng
dc.contributor.authorChin, Mian
dc.contributor.authorGinoux, Paul
dc.contributor.authorHand, Jenny
dc.contributor.authorHolben, Brent
dc.contributor.authorHua, Zhang
dc.contributor.authorKipling, Zak
dc.contributor.authorKirkevåg, Alf
dc.contributor.authorLaj, Paolo
dc.contributor.authorLurton, Thibault
dc.contributor.authorMyhre, Gunnar
dc.contributor.authorNeubauer, David
dc.contributor.authorOlivié, Dirk
dc.contributor.authorSalzen, Knut von
dc.contributor.authorTakemura, Toshihiko
dc.contributor.authorTilmes, Simon
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-10T18:54:09Z
dc.date.available2020-06-10T18:54:09Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-13
dc.description.abstractThis study presents a multi-parameter analysis of aerosol trends over the last two decades at regional and global scales. Regional time series have been computed for a set of nine optical, chemical composition and mass aerosol properties by using the observations of several ground-based networks. From these regional time series the aerosol trends have been derived for different regions of the world. Most of the properties related to aerosol loading exhibit negative trends, both at the surface and in the total atmospheric column. Significant decreases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are found in Europe, North America, South America and North Africa, ranging from −1.3 %/yr to −3.1 %/yr. An error and representativity analysis of the incomplete observational data has been performed using model data subsets in order to investigate how likely the observed trends represent the actual trends happening in the regions over the full study period from 2000 to 2014. This analysis reveals that significant uncertainty is associated with some of the regional trends due to time and space sampling deficiencies. The set of observed regional trends has then been used for the evaluation of the climate models and their skills in reproducing the aerosol trends. Model performance is found to vary depending on the parameters and the regions of the world. The models tend to capture trends in AOD, column Angstrom exponent, sulfate and particulate matter well (except in North Africa), but show larger discrepancies for coarse mode AOD. The rather good agreement of the trends, across different aerosol parameters between models and observations, when co-locating them in time and space, implies that global model trends, including those in poorly monitored regions, are likely correct. The models can help to provide a global picture of the aerosol trends by filling the gaps in regions not covered by observations. The calculation of aerosol trends at a global scale reveals a different picture from the one depicted by solely relying on ground based observations. Using a model with complete diagnostics (NorESM2) we find a global increase of AOD of about 0.2 %/yr between 2000 and 2014, primarily caused by an increase of the loads of organic aerosol, sulfate and black carbon.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipData providers from all the regional and global networks are greatly acknowledged for sharing and submitting their data to be used. DN acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme project FORCeS under grant agreement No 821205. The ECHAM-HAMMOZ model is developed by a consortium composed of ETH Zurich, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Forschungszentrum Jülich, University of Oxford, the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, and managed by the Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) at ETH Zurich. The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF). This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR. All simulations were carried out on the Cheyenne high-performance computing platform https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/user-support/acknowledging-ncarcisl, and are available to the community via the Earth System Grid.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-1203/en_US
dc.format.extent36 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2msox-f2ec
dc.identifier.citationAugustin Mortier et al., Evaluation of climate model aerosol trends with ground-based observations over the last two decades – an AeroCom and CMIP6 analysis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (2020), Vol 2020, pages 1-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1203en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1203
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/18863
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Publicationsen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.rightsThis item is likely protected under Title 17 of the U.S. Copyright Law. Unless on a Creative Commons license, for uses protected by Copyright Law, contact the copyright holder or the author.
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.titleEvaluation of climate model aerosol trends with ground-based observations over the last two decades - an AeroCom and CMIP6 analysisen_US
dc.typeTexten_US

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