PRE-COLLEGE AND EARLY COLLEGE EXPERIENCE PREDICTORS OF FIRST YEAR ACADEMIC SUCCESS AMONG UNIVERSITY FRESHMEN

Abstract

For the last several decades, researchers and theorists have attempted to understand and predict college student retention. The importance of retaining college students cannot be understated. The impacts of dropout for individuals, colleges, and states can be costly. Prominent theories and research literature point to the complexity of this issue. Pre-college factors, early college experiences, and academic performance in college all contribute to student retention and graduation The current study draws on multiple theoretical frameworks to address the gap in understanding of the relation between a set of pre-college variables (high school GPA, academic self-concept, and habits of mind), first year of college experience (academic engagement, sense of belonging, and satisfaction), first year GPA and graduation at the four-year mark. The study sample comprised 556 students at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County entering college in fall 2015. Path analysis was utilized to test 1) the hypothesized role of pre-college variables (high school GPA, academic self-concept, and habits of mind) on both short-term (first year GPA) and long-term (graduation at the four-year mark) academic outcomes, 2) the role of first year of college experience variables (academic engagement, sense of belonging, and overall satisfaction) on short-term and on long-term academic outcomes, and 3) indirect pathways of influence from pre-college variables to first year of college variables to short-term and long-term academic outcomes. Results indicated good overall model fit and partial support for the study hypotheses. Specifically, high school GPA was a consistent predictor of short term (first year GPA) and long-term academic success (graduation at the four-year mark). Next, first year of college GPA had a significant positive relation to graduation at the four-year mark and mediated the relation between high school GPA and graduation at the four-year mark. Additionally, results indicated some support for pathways to first year GPA and graduation at the four-year mark that included pre-college variables (academic self-concept). Finally, academic disengagement during the first year of college was significantly and inversely related to first year GPA and mediated the relation between high school GPA and first year GPA. Taken together, results show the combined importance of academic and psychosocial variables on first year GPA and college graduation. Recommendations for early college intervention and future retention research are discussed.