A Latent Heat Retrieval and Its Effects on the Intensity and Structure Change of Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part II: Numerical Simulations

dc.contributor.authorGuimond, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorReisner, Jon M.
dc.description.abstractIn Part I of this study, a new algorithm for retrieving the latent heat field in tropical cyclones from airborne Doppler radar was presented and fields from rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997) were shown. In Part II, the usefulness and relative accuracy of the retrievals is assessed by inserting the heating into realistic numerical simulations at 2-km resolution and comparing the generated wind structure to the radar analyses of Guillermo. Results show that using the latent heat retrievals as forcing produces very low intensity and structure errors (in terms of tangential wind speed errors and explained wind variance) and significantly improves simulations relative to a predictive run that is highly calibrated to the latent heat retrievals by using an ensemble Kalman filter procedure to estimate values of key model parameters. Releasing all the heating/cooling in the latent heat retrieval results in a simulation with a large positive bias in Guillermo’s intensity that motivates the need to determine the saturation state in the hurricane inner-core retrieval through a procedure similar to that described in Part I of this study. The heating retrievals accomplish high-quality structure statistics by forcing asymmetries in the wind field with the generally correct amplitude, placement, and timing. In contrast, the latent heating fields generated in the predictive simulation contain a significant bias toward large values and are concentrated in bands (rather than discrete cells) stretched around the vortex. The Doppler radar–based latent heat retrievals presented in this series of papers should prove useful for convection initialization and data assimilation to reduce errors in numerical simulations of tropical cyclones.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported by the Los Alamos National Laboratory through a project entitled “Flash Before the Storm: Predicting Hurricane Intensification Using LANL Lightning Data” with Dr. Chris Jeffery, the PI. Financial support was also provided by a NASA ocean vector winds contract and a NOAA grant to Dr. Mark Bourassa.en_US
dc.format.extent19 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifier.citationGuimond, Stephen R., and Jon M. Reisner. "A Latent Heat Retrieval and Its Effects on the Intensity and Structure Change of Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part II: Numerical Simulations", Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 69, 11 (2012): 3128-3146, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0201.1en_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Physics Department Collection
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET)
dc.rightsThis work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.en_US
dc.rightsPublic Domain Mark 1.0*
dc.titleA Latent Heat Retrieval and Its Effects on the Intensity and Structure Change of Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part II: Numerical Simulationsen_US


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