Nonlinear Interactions of Timing and Amplitude Biases in Modeled Southern Ocean pCO₂: The Roles of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon, Total Alkalinity, and Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract

The Southern Ocean is a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and critical to the current and future carbon cycle. This net annual CO₂ flux reflects the balance between strong seasonal variability characterized by opposing periods of winter outgassing and summer uptake. Using a simple framework, we evaluate how model biases in both the amplitude and timing of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) and in the amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) impact simulated pCO₂. We examine seasonal CO₂ fluxes and pCO₂ south of the Subantarctic Front in 42 Earth System Model and three state estimate simulations. Only 11 of the 45 simulations have a seasonal pCO₂ cycle with a correlation of ≥0.7 to observed pCO₂, while 26 have a correlation of <0. Four of the well-correlated models accurately represent the seasonality of SST, DIC, and TA, while TA biases compensate for DIC or SST biases in the other seven. DIC and SST amplitude biases are related to mixed layer (MLD) biases, with shallow MLDs, especially in the summer, correlated with larger amplitude DIC and SST cycles than observed. The amplitude of seasonal Net Primary Production is correlated to DIC and TA timing. We provide input on the main adjustments needed to correct the simulated pCO₂ seasonality in each of the evaluated models. These findings highlight the difficulty and importance of capturing the seasonal processes influencing the carbonate system to correctly model and predict the Southern Ocean carbon sink and its response to a changing climate.