Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes
| dc.contributor.author | BUTCHART, NEAL | |
| dc.contributor.author | CIONNI, I. | |
| dc.contributor.author | EYRING, V. | |
| dc.contributor.author | SHEPHERD, T. G. | |
| dc.contributor.author | LI, FENG | |
| dc.contributor.author | et al | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-01-30T19:35:13Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-01-30T19:35:13Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2010-10-15 | |
| dc.description | Authors:- NEAL BUTCHART , I. CIONNI, V. EYRING, T. G. SHEPHERD, D. W. WAUGH, H. AKIYOSHI, J. AUSTIN, C. BRUHL, M. P. CHIPPERFIELD , E. CORDERO, M. DAMERIS , R. DECKERT, S. DHOMSE, S. M. FRITH, R. R. GARCIA, A. GETTELMAN, M. A. GIORGETTA, D. E. KINNISON, F. LI, E. MANCINI, C. MCLANDRESS , S. PAWSON, G. PITARI, D. A. PLUMMER, E. ROZANOV, F. SASSI, J. F. SCINOCCA, K. SHIBATA, B. STEIL, AND W. TIAN | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade⁻¹ at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade⁻¹ at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces a westward acceleration of the lower-stratospheric wind over the Antarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade⁻¹ in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (∼70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade⁻¹, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes. | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorship | The authors acknowledge the Chemistry–Climate Model Validation Activity (CCMVal) of the WCRP’s (World Climate Research Programme) SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) project for organizing and coordinating the model data analysis activity, and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) for collecting and archiving the CCMVal model output. The European groups acknowledge support of the EC Integrated Project SCOUT-O3 (505390-GOCE-CT-2004) funded by the European Commission. Dr. Butchart’s research was supported by the Joint DECC, Defra, and MoD Integrated Climate Programme—DECC/Defra (GA01101), MoD (CBC/2B/0417_Annex C5), and SCOUT-O3. CCSR/NIES research was supported by the Global Environmental Research Fund (GERF) of the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) of Japan (A-071). The CMAM research was supported by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences through the C-SPARC project. GEOS CCM simulations were conducted on NASA’s High-Performance computing resources at NASA Ames Research Center. The MRI simulation was made with the supercomputer at the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. | en_US |
| dc.description.uri | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/20/2010jcli3404.1.xml?tab_body=pdf | en_US |
| dc.format.extent | 26 pages | en_US |
| dc.genre | journal articles | en_US |
| dc.identifier | doi:10.13016/m2wiei-0x2h | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Butchart, Neal, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, E. Cordero, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, S. Dhomse, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, F. Li, E. Mancini, C. McLandress, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, F. Sassi, J. F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, B. Steil, and W. Tian. "Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes", Journal of Climate 23, 20 (2010): 5349-5374, accessed Jan 11, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11603/26733 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | en_US |
| dc.publisher | AMS | en_US |
| dc.relation.isAvailableAt | The University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | UMBC GESTAR II Collection | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | UMBC Faculty Collection | |
| dc.rights | This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law. | en_US |
| dc.rights | Public Domain Mark 1.0 | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ | * |
| dc.title | Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes | en_US |
| dc.type | Text | en_US |
| dcterms.creator | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7928-0775 | en_US |