Historical Changes in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global Warming

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dc.contributor.authorMcMonigal, Kay
dc.contributor.authorLarson, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorHu, Shineng
dc.contributor.authorKramer, Ryan
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-03T18:41:16Z
dc.date.available2023-04-03T18:41:16Z
dc.date.issued2023-02-22
dc.description.abstractMitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change depend on accurate climate projections for the coming decades. While changes in radiative heat fluxes are known to contribute to surface warming, changes to ocean circulation can also impact the rate of surface warming. Previous studies suggest that projected changes to ocean circulation reduce the rate of global warming. However, these studies consider large greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, which induce a significant buoyancy-driven decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use a climate model to quantify the previously unknown impact of changes to wind-driven ocean circulation on global surface warming. Wind-driven ocean circulation changes amplify the externally forced warming rate by 17% from 1979 to 2014. Accurately simulating changes to the atmospheric circulation is key to improving near-term climate projectionsen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors thank Nan Rosenbloom for assistance running the MDM ensemble, and Clara Deser and the organizers of CLIVAR pattern effect meeting for productive scientific discussions. This work is supported by NSF Grant AGS-1951713 (KM and SML) and NASA Grant 80NSSC22K1025 (SH). RK was supported by NOAA Award NA18OAR4310269 and NASA Grant 80NSSC21K1968. The authors also acknowledge the high-performance computing support from Cheyenne provided by NCAR's Computing and Information Services Lab, sponsored by NSF.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL102846en_US
dc.format.extent11 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2dy8v-ikjf
dc.identifier.citation"McMonigal, K., Larson, S., Hu, S., & Kramer, R. (2023). Historical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation can accelerate global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL102846. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102846"en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102846
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/27238
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAGUen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC GESTAR II Collection
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)*
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/*
dc.titleHistorical Changes in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global Warmingen_US
dc.typeTexten_US
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9377-0674en_US

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