Potential ozone production following convective transport based on future emission scenarios
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Ellis, W. G., A. M. Thompson, S. Kondragunta, K. E. Pickering, G. Stenchikov, R. R. Dickerson, and W. -K. Tao. “Potential Ozone Production Following Convective Transport Based on Future Emission Scenarios.” Atmospheric Environment 30, no. 4 (February 1, 1996): 667–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/1352-2310(95)00318-5.
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This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.
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Abstract
Current and projected (up to 2050 A.D.) concentrations of boundary layer trace gases, including NOx, CO, CH₄, and several nonmethane hydrocarbons were redistributed throughout the troposphere in a simulation of a central U.S. squall line using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) convective cloud model. Vertical profiles of the redistributed trace gases were used in a one-dimensional photochemical model to determine the vertical profile of the potential production of 0₃. Several different emission scenarios were considered. In the case where NOx emissions were doubled along with an increase in CO, CH₄, and NMHC's, the middle troposphere showed an enhancement of 41% for O₃ production relative to the 1985 case. For the reduction scenario, where NOx emissions were decreased by a factor of two, the O₃ produced in the middle troposphere was reduced by 50%. Given the role of convection in the regional O₃ budget of the central U.S. during the summertime, our results suggest that substantial changes in emissions could bring about changes in mid-tropospheric O₃ large enough to be observed by satellite remote sensing.