Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model

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dc.contributor.authorDrüke, Markus
dc.contributor.authorBloh, Werner von
dc.contributor.authorSakschewski, Boris
dc.contributor.authorWunderling, Nico
dc.contributor.authorPetri, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorCardoso, Manoel
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, H. M. J.
dc.contributor.authorThonicke, Kirsten
dc.date.accessioned2022-12-01T22:53:07Z
dc.date.available2022-12-01T22:53:07Z
dc.date.issued2021-06-14
dc.description.abstractTropical rainforests are recognized as one of the terrestrial tipping elements which could have profound impacts on the global climate, once their vegetation has transitioned into savanna or grassland states. While several studies investigated the savannization of, e.g., the Amazon rainforest, few studies considered the influence of fire. Fire is expected to potentially shift the savanna-forest boundary and hence impact the dynamical equilibrium between these two possible vegetation states under changing climate. To investigate the climate-induced hysteresis in pan-tropical forests and the impact of fire under future climate conditions, we employed the Earth system model CM2Mc, which is biophysically coupled to the fire-enabled state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. We conducted several simulation experiments where atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased (impact phase) and decreased from the new state (recovery phase), each with and without enabling wildfires. We find a hysteresis of the biomass and vegetation cover in tropical forest systems, with a strong regional heterogeneity. After biomass loss along increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and accompanied mean surface temperature increase of about 4 ∘C (impact phase), the system does not recover completely into its original state on its return path, even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations return to their original state. While not detecting large-scale tipping points, our results show a climate-induced hysteresis in tropical forest and lagged responses in forest recovery after the climate has returned to its original state. Wildfires slightly widen the climate-induced hysteresis in tropical forests and lead to a lagged response in forest recovery by ca. 30 years.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis paper was developed within the scope of the IRTG 1740/TRP 2015/50122-0, funded by the DFG/FAPESP (MD, NW and KT). MC acknowledges the support from the projects FAPESP 2015/50122-0 (São Paulo Research Foundation), and CNPq 314016/2009-0 (Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development). KT and BS acknowledge funding from the BMBF- and Belmont Forum-funded project “CLIMAX: Climate Services Through Knowledge Co-Production: A Euro-South American Initiative For Strengthening Societal Adaptation Response to Extreme Events”, Grant No. 01LP1610A. NW is grateful for a scholarship from the Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes. The authors gratefully acknowledge the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the Land Brandenburg for supporting this project by providing resources on the high-performance computer system at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00157-2en_US
dc.format.extent10 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2dtdu-hic8
dc.identifier.citationDrüke, M., Bloh, W.v., Sakschewski, B. et al. Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 230, 3153–3162 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00157-2en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00157-2
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/26390
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Physics Department Collection
dc.rightsThis item is likely protected under Title 17 of the U.S. Copyright Law. Unless on a Creative Commons license, for uses protected by Copyright Law, contact the copyright holder or the author.en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)*
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.titleClimate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system modelen_US
dc.typeTexten_US
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4027-1855en_US

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