Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High-Resolution Global Warming Experiment

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dc.contributor.authorShields, Christine A.
dc.contributor.authorPayne, Ashley E.
dc.contributor.authorShearer, Eric Jay
dc.contributor.authorWehner, Michael F.
dc.contributor.authorCollow, Allison
dc.contributor.authoret al
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-12T17:18:37Z
dc.date.available2023-04-12T17:18:37Z
dc.date.issued2023-03-14
dc.descriptionAuthors: Christine A. Shields, Ashley E. Payne, Eric Jay Shearer, Michael F. Wehner, Travis Allen O’Brien, Jonathan J. Rutz, L. Ruby Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Allison B. Marquardt Collow, Paul A. Ullrich, Qizhen Dong, Alexander Gershunov, Helen Griffith, Bin Guan, Juan Manuel Lora, Mengqian Lu, Elizabeth McClenny, Kyle M. Nardi, Mengxin Pan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Tamara Shulgina, Maximiliano Viale, Chandan Sarangi, Ricardo Tomé, and Colin Zarzyckien_US
dc.description.abstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe have many thanks to give. ARTMIP is a grass-roots community effort and includes a large collection of international researchers from universities, laborato-ries, and agencies. It has received support from the US Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER) as part of the Regional and Global Climate Model Analysis (RGMA) program area, and the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps Institute for Oceanography at the University of California. Shields, O’Brien, Wehner, Leung, Qian, Sarangi, Zarzycki acknowl-edge DOE (BER) RGMA, a compo-nent of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program with Award Numbers DE-SC0022070 (Shields), DE-AC02-05CH11231 (O’Brien, Wehner, McClenny), DE-AC05-76RL01830 (Leung, Qian, Sarangi) through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Mode-ling (WACCEM) scientific focus area, DE-SC0016605 (Ullrich, McClenny, C, Zarzycki) through the Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, and Detection of Extremes (CASCADE) scientifc focus area, and through “A framework for improving analysis and modeling of Earth system and intersec-toral dynamics at regional scales.” Addi-tionally, support has been given from the National Science Foundation (NSF) IA 1947282 and National Center for Atmos-pheric Research (NCAR) under Cooper-ative Agreement No. 1852977 (Shields); the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University’s Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Chal-lenge initiative (O’Brien); Lilly Endow-ment Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute (O’Brien); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated for DOE by the Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 (Leung, Qian, Sarangi); the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, hatch project under Cali-fornia Agricultural Experiment Station project accession nos. 1010971 and 1016611 (McClenny); Ridge to Reef NSF Research Traineeship (#DGE-1735040), California Energy Commission (#300-15-005), CW3E at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography via AR Program Phase II (#4600013361) sponsored by CA-DWR (Shearer); NASA’s Earth Science Research Program (Collow); Climate Process Team (CPT) under Grant AGS-1916689 from the NSF and Grant NA19OAR4310363 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-tion (NOAA) (Nardi); the Hong Kong Research Grants Council funded projects #16200920 and collaborative research fund # C6032-21G, (Dong, Lu, Pan); New Faculty Initiation Grant project number CE/20-21/065/NFIG/008961 from IIT Madras, India (Sarangi); NASA Grants 80NSSC20K1344 and 80NSSC21K1007, and the California Department of Water Resources (Guan); the Helmholtz “Changing Earth” program (Ramos); the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC)—UIDB/50019/2020 (Tomé); FONCYT PICT-2020-01722 (Viale); SCENAR-IO-CASE studentship, funded jointly by the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the UK Environment Agency under award code NE/P010040/1 (Griffith). Finally, we thank ARTMIP contributor Naomi Goldenson for provid-ing ARDT catalogs to this project.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL102091en_US
dc.format.extent9 pagesen_US
dc.genrejournal articlesen_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2ztfa-ramr
dc.identifier.citationShields, C. A., Payne, A. E., Shearer, E. J., Wehner, M. F., O’Brien, T. A., Rutz, J. J., et al. (2023). Future atmospheric rivers and impacts on precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 high-resolution global warming experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102091. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102091en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102091
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/27593
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAGUen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC GESTAR II Collection
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.rightsThis work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.en_US
dc.rightsPublic Domain Mark 1.0*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/*
dc.titleFuture Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High-Resolution Global Warming Experimenten_US
dc.typeTexten_US
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3566-3889en_US

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