The Hidden Crisis in Baltimore's Public Safety Pension System: The Impact of Declining Active Membership on Baltimore's Public Safety Pension System and the City Budget

Abstract

This study examines the critical and often overlooked issue of declining active membership in the Baltimore City Fire and Police Employees’ Retirement System (BCFPERS, F&P) and its far-reaching implications for the system's long-term sustainability and the city budget. Guided by the central research question: How does declining active membership impact the long-term sustainability of BCFPERS and the resulting budgetary implications for city government?—the research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative data analysis.

By analyzing demographic shifts, financial data, and stakeholder perspectives, this study identifies structural vulnerabilities threatening the system’s financial stability. To increase public understanding and accessibility, the project includes an audio component: Silent Alarm: Public Safety Pensions, a podcast series featuring candid discussions with BCFPERS leadership, investment consultants, and actuaries on pension challenges and actionable solutions.

A companion website provides access to podcast episodes along with visual data tools (charts and graphs) that illustrate funding ratios, membership trends, and budgetary impacts. These resources simplify complex financial concepts, summarize findings, and foster transparency. Ultimately, this study provides targeted recommendations to strengthen the long-term sustainability of BCFPERS and contributes to the broader discourse on public sector pensions, fiscal responsibility, and urban fiscal resilience.