Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation Forecasts With the NASA GEOS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal System

Thumbnail Image

Files

JGR Atmospheres - 2021 - Aquila - Impacts of the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Surface Temperatures and Precipitation.pdf (4.71 MB)
2021jd034830-sup-0001-supporting information si-s01.pdf (3.94 MB)

Links to Files

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021JD034830

Permanent Link

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034830
 http://hdl.handle.net/11603/26696

Collections

UMBC GESTAR II

Author/Creator

Author/Creator ORCID

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7928-0775

Date

2021-07-26

Type of Work

journal articles
Text

Department

Program

Citation of Original Publication

Aquila, V., Baldwin, C., Mukherjee, N., Hackert, E., Li, F., Marshak, J., et al. (2021). Impacts of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on surface temperatures and precipitation forecasts with the NASA GEOS subseasonal-to-seasonal system. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2021JD034830. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034830.

Rights

This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.
Public Domain Mark 1.0

Subjects

Abstract

A contemporary seasonal forecasting system is used to study the impacts of a volcanic sulfate injection into the stratosphere on the seasonal forecasts for surface temperatures, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and precipitation. The focus is a case study of the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines and the period from July 1991 to February 1992. Version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system is used in this study. GEOSS2S includes the GOddard Chemistry, Aerosols, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module, which allows to prognostically simulate aerosol distributions. GOCART is coupled to the radiation and cloud modules to include the impact of the eruption on forecasted radiation and precipitation. The coupled GEOS-S2S system was initialized in May 1991 with fields based on observations to produce ten-member 9-month forecasts with and without the volcanic sulfur injection. The results of these ensemble experiments demonstrate that including Mt. Pinatubo in seasonal forecasts would improve the forecasts of the 1991–1992 global mean temperature and precipitation but worsen the forecast of ENSO by strengthening of El Niño beyond what showed in observations. Most significant changes in the forecasts of temperatures and precipitation are limited to the tropics. The only land area where the inclusion of Pinatubo significantly lowered the forecasted precipitation is tropical Africa.