• Login
    View Item 
    •   Maryland Shared Open Access Repository Home
    • ScholarWorks@Towson
    • Towson University College of Business and Economics
    • Towson University Department of Economics
    • View Item
    •   Maryland Shared Open Access Repository Home
    • ScholarWorks@Towson
    • Towson University College of Business and Economics
    • Towson University Department of Economics
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Inflation expectations in India: learning from household tendency surveys

    Thumbnail
    Files
    Inflation Expectations in India (1.132Mb)
    Links to Files
    https://ideas.repec.org/p/tow/wpaper/2018-03.html
    Permanent Link
    http://hdl.handle.net/11603/12675
    Collections
    • Towson University Department of Economics
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Author/Creator
    Das, Abhiman
    Lahiri, Kajal
    Zhao, Yongchen
    Date
    2018-08
    Type of Work
    application/pdf
    40 pages
    Text
    working papers
    Department
    Towson University. Department of Economics
    Citation of Original Publication
    Abhiman Das & Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2018. "Inflation Expectations in India: Learning from Household Tendency Surveys," Working Papers 2018-03, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2018.
    Subjects
    Hierarchical ordered probit model
    Quantification
    Tendency surveys
    Disagreements
    Inflation (Finance) -- India
    Abstract
    Using a large household survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India since 2005, we estimate the dynamics of aggregate inflation expectations over a volatile inflation regime. A simple average of the quantitative responses produces biased estimates of the official inflation data. We therefore estimate expectations by quantifying the reported directional responses. For quantification, we use the Hierarchical Ordered Probit model, in addition to the balance statistic. We find that the quantified expectations from qualitative forecasts track the actual inflation rate better than the averages of the quantitative forecasts, highlighting the filtering role of qualitative tendency surveys. We also report estimates of disagreement among households. The proposed approach is particularly suitable in emerging economies where inflation tends to be high and volatile.


    Towson University
    8000 York Road
    Towson, Maryland 21252

    Website:
    www.towson.edu

    Contact Info:
    azukowski@towson.edu
    410-704-5318
    http://libraries.towson.edu/md-soar


    If you wish to submit a copyright complaint or withdrawal request, please email mdsoar-help@umd.edu.

     

     

    My Account

    LoginRegister

    Browse

    This CollectionBy Issue DateTitlesAuthorsSubjectsType

    Statistics

    View Usage Statistics


    Towson University
    8000 York Road
    Towson, Maryland 21252

    Website:
    www.towson.edu

    Contact Info:
    azukowski@towson.edu
    410-704-5318
    http://libraries.towson.edu/md-soar


    If you wish to submit a copyright complaint or withdrawal request, please email mdsoar-help@umd.edu.