Chikungunya in Brazil and Venezuela 2014-2017: An Exploratory Analysis of the Influence of Environmental, Social, and Economic Factors
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Author/Creator ORCID
Date
2020-01-20
Type of Work
Department
Emergency Health Services
Program
Emergency Health Services
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Distribution Rights granted to UMBC by the author.
This item may be protected under Title 17 of the U.S. Copyright Law. It is made available by UMBC for non-commercial research and education. For permission to publish or reproduce, please see http://aok.lib.umbc.edu/specoll/repro.php or contact Special Collections at speccoll(at)umbc.edu
This item may be protected under Title 17 of the U.S. Copyright Law. It is made available by UMBC for non-commercial research and education. For permission to publish or reproduce, please see http://aok.lib.umbc.edu/specoll/repro.php or contact Special Collections at speccoll(at)umbc.edu
Abstract
Objective: The purpose of this study was to observe trends in chikungunya incidence in Brazil and Venezuela during 2014-2017 and describe potential factors contributing to these findings. Background: Strikingly high numbers of reported and suspected chikungunya were reported in Brazil and Venezuela during 2013-2017 (Pan American Health Organization, 2017a). Data collected from Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) described nearly 384,000 suspected cases of chikungunya, with almost 272,000 confirmed through laboratory testing (2017). Disparate patterns were noted for the two countries, whereby the Venezuelan incidence rate peaked early and then stabilized, the Brazilian cases took longer to rise in number and spiked later. Research Question: What factors are associated with the observed chikungunya incidence rates in Brazil and Venezuela? Methods: Incidence data were gathered from reports released by PAHO from 2014-2017 (2017a) and a systematic review of literature was used to identify typical patterns of mosquito reproduction and disease transmission to determine which independent variables to include. We identified three primary categories: climate, economy, and "disease awareness," (i.e., the number of Google searches using the search term "chikungunya" from wireless access points throughout Brazil and Venezuela). Findings: We found a correlation between economy and the chikungunya incidence rate. In addition, the findings suggest that an influx of migrants could potentiate disease spread through lack of preparedness and available resources in the destination location. These factors are likely due to a combination of diminished public health initiatives, a decrease in available resources, and a population increase in areas unprepared to provide care for a great influx of individuals.