Historical Changes in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global Warming

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Geophysical Research Letters - 2023 - McMonigal - Historical Changes in Wind‐Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global.pdf (1.84 MB)

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https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL102846

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https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102846
 http://hdl.handle.net/11603/27238

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UMBC GESTAR II
UMBC Faculty Collection

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Author/Creator ORCID

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9377-0674

Date

2023-02-22

Type of Work

journal articles
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Citation of Original Publication

"McMonigal, K., Larson, S., Hu, S., & Kramer, R. (2023). Historical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation can accelerate global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL102846. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102846"

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Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)

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Abstract

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change depend on accurate climate projections for the coming decades. While changes in radiative heat fluxes are known to contribute to surface warming, changes to ocean circulation can also impact the rate of surface warming. Previous studies suggest that projected changes to ocean circulation reduce the rate of global warming. However, these studies consider large greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, which induce a significant buoyancy-driven decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use a climate model to quantify the previously unknown impact of changes to wind-driven ocean circulation on global surface warming. Wind-driven ocean circulation changes amplify the externally forced warming rate by 17% from 1979 to 2014. Accurately simulating changes to the atmospheric circulation is key to improving near-term climate projections