On Borrowed Time: The Past, Present, and Future of Virginia’s Barrier Islands under Differing Sea-Level Rise Scenarios
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Abstract
Virginia’s barrier islands constitute one of the most undeveloped shorelines of the eastern
US. Aside from a few islands in the north, the islands are uninhabited and managed for
conservation. These islands play important environmental, cultural, and economic roles along
Virginia’s Eastern Shore. Climate change driven sea-level rise is already having a major impact
on these islands and threatens their existence. We utilize transect analysis across each of the
barrier islands to depict the shoreline change trends annually from 1850 to 2010. We then utilize
time series forecasting and panel modeling to estimate future island shorelines up to and
including a best estimate 2099 CE shoreline. Results indicate that across almost all the islands,
the shoreline retreat rate has been increasing over time. Additionally, we find that year 2100 CE
sea-level rise scenarios are likely to accelerate the shoreline retreat occurring on these islands
and may erase many of them all together. We find that the northern islands of Wallops and North
Assateague will remain generally stable whereas many of the remaining islands will likely
experience rapid shoreline retreat under future sea-level rise scenarios.