Global patterns of rain-on-snow and its impacts on runoff from past to future projections

dc.contributor.authorMaina, Fadji
dc.contributor.authorKumar, Sujay V.
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-17T14:45:37Z
dc.date.available2025-06-17T14:45:37Z
dc.date.issued2025-05-21
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming has induced rain-on-snow (ROS) in cold regions leading to significant consequences on ecosystems and socioeconomic development. However, a global analysis of ROS under historical conditions and future projections following different emissions scenarios, essential for management strategies, is currently lacking. Here, we examine ROS changes and their impacts on the water available for runoff, analyzing historical conditions since 1950 and projecting future trends under SSP245 and SSP585 until 2100. By the end of the century, ROS will predominantly occur in high-latitude and altitude regions such as High Mountain Asia, the Alps, Northern Eurasia, and America with rates up to three times higher than those of the historical conditions. Nonetheless, the increasing rainfall will reduce by more than half the contribution of ROS to the water available for runoff despite its rise. Although regions like the Western United States have historically experienced significant ROS, warming will diminish ROS impacts as they become twice lower due to decreasing snowpack and intensified rainfall.
dc.description.sponsorshipcomputing was supported by the resources at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation.
dc.description.urihttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59855-3
dc.format.extent10 pages
dc.genrejournal articles
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2gslg-v2uc
dc.identifier.citationFadji Z. Maina and Sujay V. Kumar, “Global Patterns of Rain-on-Snow and Its Impacts on Runoff from Past to Future Projections,” Nature Communications 16, no. 1 (May 21, 2025): 4731, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59855-3.
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59855-3
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/38919
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherNature
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC GESTAR II
dc.rightsThis work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.
dc.rightsPublic Domain
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/
dc.subjectCryospheric science
dc.subjectHydrology
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.titleGlobal patterns of rain-on-snow and its impacts on runoff from past to future projections
dc.typeText
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3126-4343

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