Partisan, Humble Thyself: How Political Overconfidence Fuels Affective Polarization

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Date

2024-05-01

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Citation of Original Publication

Anson, Ian. “Partisan, Humble Thyself: How Political Overconfidence Fuels Affective Polarization.” American Government and Politics (May 1, 2024). https://doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2024-57zgl.

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Abstract

Ongoing research shows that many Americans erroneously believe themselves to know more about politics than their peers. This form of “political overconfidence” has been associated with extreme ideological position-taking and susceptibility to misinformation, among other patterns of behavior. Does knowledge overconfidence among partisans also drive negative affect towards members of the opposing political party? In this short article, I present the results of a pre-registered survey experiment (N = 1,049) designed to assess the causal link between knowledge overconfidence and negative perceptions of political parties and their members. By randomly exposing experimental subjects to messages designed to mitigate knowledge overconfidence, I measure the degree to which such interventions can reduce negativity towards partisans’ political opponents. Results show that invoking humility among partisans can dampen negative assessments of the out-party and raise respondents’ willingness to communicate with partisan alters.