As we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targets
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Quagraine, Kwesi A., Mark Lynas, and Erle C. Ellis. “As We Breach 1.5 °C, We Must Replace Temperature Limits with Clean-Energy Targets.” Nature 649, no. 8099 (2026): 1103–6. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-00246-z.
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This work was written as part of one of the author's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. Law.
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Actionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources. On 28 October 2025, United Nations secretary-general António Guterres acknowledged that the totemic goal of the Paris climate agreement is going to be missed: “The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5 °C in the next few years”¹ . Guterres was merely stating the obvious. In 2024, Earth’s global mean surface temperature averaged 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels² , and the average for 2023–25 is 1.48 °C, perilously close to the limit. Keeping to the Paris target now looks impossible by any realistic measure. Yet this moment should not invite despair. Instead, it demands an urgent reframing of how climate progress is measured and mobilized.