Evaluation of easterly wave disturbances over the tropical South Atlantic in CMIP6 models

dc.contributor.authorCavalcante, Lucas
dc.contributor.authorGomes, Helber
dc.contributor.authorHodges, Kevin
dc.contributor.authorRay, Pallav
dc.contributor.authorHerdies, Dirceu
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, H. M. J.
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Weber
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Maria Cristina
dc.contributor.authorBrito, José Ivaldo
dc.contributor.authorNobre, João Pedro
dc.contributor.authorLyra, Matheus
dc.contributor.authorBaltaci, Hakki
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-14T15:19:01Z
dc.date.available2024-11-14T15:19:01Z
dc.date.issued2024-07-17
dc.description.abstractThis study assesses the performance of the latest phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in simulating easterly wave disturbances (EWD) over the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) impacting northeast Brazil (NEB). Initially, we evaluate simulated precipitation from 17 historical CMIP, 16 AMIP, 7 hist-1950, and 10 highresSST-present models against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset to identify models that accurately reproduce the spatial and temporal precipitation patterns in the study region. The ensemble's spatial analysis demonstrates their capability in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation climatology. However, models underestimate precipitation intensity along NEB's coast while overestimating it in TSA and NEB's north. Model uncertainties tend to be greater with higher latitudes. The models represented the annual cycle in all subareas within the study region, particularly from July to October, albeit with a greater spread in the first half of the year, especially over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Based on it, three top-performing models from each ensemble were selected for EWD evaluation. The automatic tracking algorithm for EWDs showed the model's ability to represent mean values of EWD lifetime(~ 6 days) and phase speed (~ 7 m s-1) as found in ERA5 reanalysis. However, they failed to capture EWD's interannual variability or climatological mean frequency. Despite CMIP6 model weaknesses, they accurately identified two primary EWD genesis regions: one over the TSA and another near the West African coast. Overall, CMIP6 models, particularly atmospheric and high-resolution models (HighResMIP), effectively captured precipitation climatology and EWD characteristics over NEB and the adjacent TSA.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, CNPq
dc.description.urihttps://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4577594/v1
dc.format.extent35 pages
dc.genrejournal articles
dc.genrepreprints
dc.identifierdoi:10.13016/m2sxk2-gxo9
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4577594/v1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11603/36983
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.relation.isAvailableAtThe University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Physics Department
dc.relation.ispartofUMBC Faculty Collection
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International CC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleEvaluation of easterly wave disturbances over the tropical South Atlantic in CMIP6 models
dc.typeText
dcterms.creatorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4027-1855

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