Evaluation of easterly wave disturbances over the tropical South Atlantic in CMIP6 models

Abstract

This study assesses the performance of the latest phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in simulating easterly wave disturbances (EWD) over the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) impacting northeast Brazil (NEB). Initially, we evaluate simulated precipitation from 17 historical CMIP, 16 AMIP, 7 hist-1950, and 10 highresSST-present models against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset to identify models that accurately reproduce the spatial and temporal precipitation patterns in the study region. The ensemble's spatial analysis demonstrates their capability in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation climatology. However, models underestimate precipitation intensity along NEB's coast while overestimating it in TSA and NEB's north. Model uncertainties tend to be greater with higher latitudes. The models represented the annual cycle in all subareas within the study region, particularly from July to October, albeit with a greater spread in the first half of the year, especially over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Based on it, three top-performing models from each ensemble were selected for EWD evaluation. The automatic tracking algorithm for EWDs showed the model's ability to represent mean values of EWD lifetime (~ 6 days) and phase speed (~ 7 m s⁻¹) as found in ERA5 reanalysis. However, they failed to capture EWD's interannual variability or climatological mean frequency. Despite CMIP6 model weaknesses, they accurately identified two primary EWD genesis regions: one over the TSA and another near the West African coast. Overall, CMIP6 models, particularly atmospheric and high-resolution models (HighResMIP), effectively captured precipitation climatology and EWD characteristics over NEB and the adjacent TSA.