NATURAL DISTURBANCE IN PIEDMONT AND BLUE RIDGE FOREST HABITATS: TREE MORTALITY AND SPROUTING AFTER HURRICANE ISABEL

Abstract

More hurricanes are expected to occur in the Atlantic Ocean during the next 50 years causing more damage to the forests along the East coast and to inland areas affected by these storms. Over the last 100 years, many of these forests have not experienced this type of damage, and some have developed into well-established secondary succession forest habitats, capable of supporting a diverse collection of flora and fauna. A change in the disturbance patterns for the Eastern landscape could have a direct effect on the species composition of these forests, significantly changing the habitat dynamics that occur there. This study explored whether or not forests follow a standard successional sequence after disturbance. The main goals of the study were to identify the extent and patterns of tree mortality in Eastern deciduous forests after Hurricane Isabel, and to analyze the role of sprouting in forest recovery. Data were collected at six forested sites that incurred damage from Hurricane Isabel. I developed 49 candidate models for :four response variables and statistical analysis was completed using both binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Model selection was completed using an information-theory approach. Results show that the combination of site, tree size, species and severity of damage have a significant effect on the damage, survival and recovery of forested areas damaged by Hurricane Isabel. Future studies may show that while the initial sprouting is high, sprouting rates fall off over time and recovery patterns change due to delayed mortality and temporal effects.