Global potential for natural regeneration in deforested tropical regions

Abstract

Extensive forest restoration is a key strategy to meet nature-based sustainable development goals and provide multiple social and environmental benefits1. Yet achieving forest restoration at scale requires cost-effective methods2. Tree planting in degraded landscapes is a popular but costly forest restoration method that often results in less biodiverse forests when compared to natural regeneration techniques under similar conditions3. Here we assess the current spatial distribution of pantropical natural forest (from 2000 to 2016) and use this to present a model of the potential for natural regeneration across tropical forested countries and biomes at a spatial resolution of 30 m. We estimate that an area of 215 million hectares—an area greater than the entire country of Mexico—has potential for natural forest regeneration, representing an above-ground carbon sequestration potential of 23.4 Gt C (range, 21.1–25.7 Gt) over 30 years. Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico and Colombia) account for 52% of this estimated potential, showcasing the need for targeting restoration initiatives that leverage natural regeneration potential. Our results facilitate broader equitable decision-making processes that capitalize on the widespread opportunity for natural regeneration to help achieve national and global environmental agendas.