Predictors of Turnover Intent in the Executive Branch: A Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis Using Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey Indices

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to highlight the antecedents of employee turnover, one of the most understudied areas in human resource management. Given the phenomenon of the “great resignation” that is resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the topic of turnover assumes greater significance. The relationship between employee perceptions of workplace indices and stated turnover intention is examined using the 2017 Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey of 486,105 executive branch employees from 195 subagencies. The indices included in the study are the Employee Engagement Index, Global Satisfaction Index, Human Capital Assessment and Accountability Framework, and the New Inclusion Quotient. As predicted, multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that satisfaction with the job, general satisfaction with the employer, fairness of compensation, and talent management practices at the workplace were the major influencers of turnover intention. These results were further validated with the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve for their discriminant ability. Employees who were satisfied with their jobs, their overall agency, distributive equity, and their agency's talent management practices were more likely to stay at their organizations than others. Of these different variables, job satisfaction and general satisfaction were most strongly related to employee intent to stay. A further examination of underlying items of the four variables using Principal Component Analysis revealed that "work environment" and "work value" explained employee intention to leave. The major conclusions are that if managers want to reduce turnover, they need to support a fair and equitable workplace where employees perceive that they are valued, and their talents are utilized. Employees also need to feel good about their jobs and employers. The results also suggest that the employees and organizations can outgrow each other. Empowered employees, with a high-performance record, who have limited growth opportunities for advancement can outgrow their organizations. Sometimes organizations can outgrow employees who are unable to adapt to changing conditions. Implications for theory, practice, and future research conclude the dissertation.